Clinton vs Rubio

 

 

Before the votes are fully counted tonight in Iowa, I’m calling the US Presidential race to be Clinton vs Rubio.

Trump has maxed out.  Trumped and dumped.  He never had a real chance as he mobilized all his support up front, alienating all the rest.  For the Republicans, Cruz looks like the leader now, but his extremist edge will drive the mainstream Republicans to the less extremist Rubio.  The dropouts will coalesce around Rubio.

For the Democrats, Sanders has done very well.  A special shout-out to the Millenials who came out 84% in favour of Sanders.  They have almost won this by themselves, with the help of the 25-40 year old group.  And they might prevail yet as Sanders will trounce Clinton in New Hampshire and could get a big wave going among young people.  However, I’m expecting the older demographic to increase their voting participation to put Clinton over the top.

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5 thoughts on “Clinton vs Rubio

  1. Bruce ~ I agree with your political assessment here. Also, Trump’s bowing out from the Iowa debate due to his hostile feelings towards Fox News will not help him politically. He looked like a spoiled child having a tantrum! Out of the bunch on stage, I feel Rubio has the best chance of winning, even though Cruz is ahead at present. Personally, I don’t see Cruz winning the election after his efforts to shut down the government in our country, playing the bully on the block. People were not impressed with that maneuver, especially government employees! When you mess with one’s livelihood to make a point, you lose the war, IMHO.

    • Good comments Faune.

      Generally my assessment is based on the idea that the mainstream electorate of each party will tend to gravitate to the less extreme of the main candidates. Both Trump and Cruz are extreme in their own way but Rubio is less so and will appeal to a broader base who want to win the White House, not just get their ideas across. It is doubtful that either Trump or Cruz can win the White House if they are the Republican candidate. The same principle applies for Sanders.

      • Bruce ~I agree that both Trump and Cruz are too extreme for the ticket. If either gets nominated, you can be sure they will lose in the end due to their crazy ideas they both have been broadcasting recently. Bernie Sanders also appears extreme, but a favorite of the young voters. Personally, I think Hillary Clinton is their best bet for the Presidency. After all, it’s also time to get a woman the chance to govern after some of the fiascos experienced under George W. Bush and even under Obama. However, at least Obama accomplished something during his term regarding healthcare. But, it does need a lot of tweeting to be really effect and affordable.

  2. It all seems so insane … Sanders deserves a shot at it, and Clinton needs a swift kick. Rubio is, as you say, much more appealing than Cruz, but America needs a hard hand, and for that reason the terse self-aggrandizing Trump needs to win it all. I’d bid Trump against Sanders. America can’t afford another Jesuit in office. But that didn’t stop them from hiring the younger Bush a second time. Likely insanity will be king.

    • Could be. My little article isn’t to portray my preferences though, just to predict the way I think it will go. I think Trump is already done. His support has always been maxed out because of his polarizing effect. The only thing that could get him back into it would be a catastrophic event like an economic disaster or a big terrorist attack on US soil and fearful people will flock to him.

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